BASEBALL CLASSICS Simulation: DiMaggio 56-Game Hitting Streak
We Determined How Long It Will Take To Ever Happen Again.
Have you ever wondered if 1941 New York Yankees, Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak is the most unlikely MLB record to break?
Baseball Classics tackles that question with an answer that will surprise even the most savvy of MLB fans…
Over the years, we’ve put Baseball Classics to the test like no other MLB board game company.
Just to name a couple recent examples, we’ve accurately simulated projections of the past 5 World Series (2022-2017). And demonstrated Baseball Classics 2022 Aaron Judge card will average nearly 62 record-breaking home runs tested with over 11 million plate appearances.
Baseball Classics takes on an improbable mission most MLB experts claim is the most unlikely single-season record to be broken.
Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hitting streak!
From May 15 to July 16, Joltin’ Joe hit .408/.463/.717 — against a group of pitchers that included four Hall of Famers — with 91 hits, 35 of which went for extra bases. Source: MLB
Grab a cup of “Joe”, read on to see how improbable this mission could ever be repeated…
Joe DiMaggio’s 1941 Season Hitting Streak and Season Stats
DiMaggio finished the 1941 MLB season with the New York Yankees a .357 batting average; during his 56 consecutive game hitting streak he hit .408.
For this simulation, we used Baseball Classics next generation real-time game cards to see what the probability would be for Joe DiMaggio to accomplish this mighty feat.
We generated a Baseball Classics (Standard Edition) card for him based only on the stats he compiled during his streak. Next, we only used the stats of the pitchers he faced, when he faced them.
Then we input those stats into Baseball Classics next generation real-time gaming engine to generate two player cards; one for Joe DiMaggio during his streak and the other based on the statistical accumulation of pitchers he faced during his streak.
How We Setup The Simulation
For this simulation, we used Baseball Classics next generation real-time game cards to see what the probability would be for Joe DiMaggio to accomplish this mighty feat.
We generated a Baseball Classics (Standard Edition) card for him based only on the stats he compiled during his streak. Next, we only used the stats of the pitchers he faced, when he faced them.
Then we input those stats into Baseball Classics next generation real-time gaming engine to generate two player cards; one for Joe DiMaggio during his streak and the other based on the statistical accumulation of pitchers he faced during his streak.
Here’s Joe DiMaggio’s 1941 New York Yankees Baseball Classics produced based on the stats from his 56-game hitting streak.
There are 3 key areas to take notice of:
1. Upper right corner batter icon (uses 1 batter/pitcher die)
2. ROLL column (uses 4-six sided dice)
3. RESULT column (hits color-coded in green)
For Joe DiMaggio to record a hit on this card, it takes dice rolls would need to be showing the batter icon on the batter/pitcher die shows and six-sided dice ROLLs with a hit in his RESULT column in 6, 7, 8, 10, 15, 17, 18, 20, or 23.
The other way for Joe DiMaggio to record a hit is off the Baseball Classics pitcher’s card we produced. We did this using the stats of the pitchers he faced, when he faced with our Baseball Classics next generation real-time game engine. It’s a hit whenever the pitcher icon on the batter/pitcher die shows and the six-sided dice ROLLs with a hit in the RESULT column in 4, 5, 7, 10, 18, 19, 23, or 24.
Our simulation was based on 247 plate appearances using 1 batter/pitcher iconic die and 4 six-sided dice for each game he played. Thus, if he had 4 plate appearances in a specific game, he had no more or less in that game simulation.
Probability According To Experts
Calculating the Odds: Joe DiMaggio’s 56-Game Hitting Streak by Peter Goodrich and Bob Brown (SABR – Society for American Baseball Research) “What were his chances of hitting safely in 56 straight games? .82156, or about .000016”
More Thoughts on DiMaggio’s 56-Game Hitting Streak by Jay Mendelsohn and Edward Beltrami (SABR – Society for American Baseball Research) “This is not to say that an unusual streak cannot occur by chance alone but that the odds of this happening are minuscule (about once in 10,000 seasons)”
DiMaggio’s Bound To Fall by Mike Celizic NBC News “I’m in a minority on this one, most observers — expert and amateur alike — consider DiMaggio’s streak to be the most unassailable in baseball.”
“I don’t think any record is unbreakable, including hitting in 56 straight. Heck, I’m sure there were people back in my day that thought Sisler and Keeler’s records were untouchable, too.”
— Joe DiMaggio in 1999 at age 84
Baseball Classics 1941 56-Game DiMaggio Simulation Results
Each simulation ran based on 247 plate appearances for each 56-game “season”. If that season did not result in a 56-game hitting streak, it ran another until it was accomplished. We ran a dozen simulations, with them averaging nearly 1 million seasons played before a 56-game hitting streak occurred.
Baseball Classics simulations showed the probability of DiMaggio accomplishing his 56-game hitting streak is .000012, or once in every 999,283 MLB seasons. Yes, our simulations show it is that rare.
Also, Baseball Classics simulations averaged the exact 91 hits (90.8) compared to his actual 91. This once again, demonstrates pinpoint Baseball Classics player card ratings accuracy that deliver realistic statistical outcomes just like they performed that season.
You can order any Baseball Classics MLB Teams and/or Seasons 1901-Present here.
Is it possible for DiMaggio to have hit in 56-consecutive games if he batted his season average of .357? Yes, you’ll see that in Simulation number 10 when he batted .350 (78 Hits/223 ABs). Possible, but it took over 1 million seasons.
Run Your Own Simulations
Other articles we researched used mathematical computations to calculate the probability of this rare event.
We used our next generation real-time gaming engine (based on many algorithms) to generate the statistical probability in the form of dice rolls to determine when he would get a hit off his Baseball Classics card or the accumulative rated pitcher card of the pitchers he faced.
Then we simulated dice rolls to see which ones were hits (against either card) during the exact number of plate appearances DiMaggio had game-by-game.
As stated, it took on average almost 1 million seasons to show Joe DiMaggio repeating this against those pitchers. With the probability of this happening being .000012. Baseball Classics player cards RESULT ratings in our simulation averaged the exact 91 hits DiMaggio had (90.8) during his streak.
You can run your own testing if you’d like to use the player card ratings we provided and used for our Baseball Classics simulations. Simply create a spreadsheet and use random numbers to generate the dice rolls (remember to generate each of the six-side die independently before summing them) against the DiMaggio .408 hitting streak player card and pitching RESULT ratings of those he faced we provided in this article.
We also provided a link of his 56-game hitting streak above from Baseball Almanac so you can mirror the exact number of plate appearances for each game.
Conclusion: MISSION (HIGHLY) IMPROBABLE
There were many close calls to ending the streak including 3 of the 56 games where DiMaggio only recorded 2 at bats (due to walks or one 5-inning game). Just like The Yankee Clipper graciously tipped his hat after clubbing a home run, we tip our cap to his unfathomable accomplishment!
No matter who’s statistical or simulation you believe, they all underscore this event is one for the ages.
If you’re a SABR fan, then you’ll appreciate this Baseball Classics simulation based on cards generated by our next generation real-time gaming engine as we both show the probability of this ever happening in the range of .0001. However, SABR shows once in 10,000 seasons, we show once in about 1,000,000.
As highly improbably as it was to repeat this feat by DiMaggio facing overall ratings against the same pitchers he faced in our simulations, imagine how much more difficult it would have been in today’s MLB bullpens filled with specialists.
With that, how many hitters will bat at a clip of .350 or better during 56 consecutive games, let alone .408 or better? Even if 1 or maybe more do, the odds are stacked against them to accomplish hitting in 56-games straight unless it’s a long, long time from now.